Round 17 AFL Rivalvry Round Preview

By Kevin Pitstock - July 24, 2009  

Officially this weekend’s AFL action is all about local derbys billed as “Rivalry Round”. Tonight’s game really encapsulates the traditional contests that the AFL hope will be replayed game after gfame around the country, certainly enough to give us some brief relief from “tanking” and Mick Malthouse’s future coaching plans.

Tonigh’s MCG clash between Carlton and Collingwood has everything you’d want to see in a local derby. Carlton come in to tonight’s game off a good 61 point drubbing of Sydney and have put together a three match wining streak, somethting they’ve not done since 2004. Despite that they come in as $2.00 outsiders at Sports Alive to Collingwood at $1.85. Last time they met in Round 8 Carlton came out 51 point winners and we’ll stick with them and the Fev to overcome a troubled Collingwood.

Thje action continues Saturday with the grand final replay betwen Geelong and Hawthorn at the MCG. In fact its a reply of Round 1 and that game failed to deliver the spark of the 2008 AFL Grand Final and saw Geelong stride out narrow 8 point winners at the same venue. While it would be hard to say that Geelong tanked it last 3 matches, losing two of them, it would be fair to say that they have ensured that their star personal are all well truly rested just and have been given opportunity to get over injuries with the finals in sight. With much of Geelong’s premium roster back on track and Buddy Franklin in nothing like his 2008 form for Hawthorn who are coming off the back of a hard fought win over Collingwood, Geelong should stride away with this. At just $1.45 for Geelong at Sportsbet, there’s not a lot of room for error but Geelong 40+ at $3.75 at Sportsbet is a very attractive bet.

Over in the west one of the weekend’s most passionate local derby’s tales place with Freemantle taking on the West Coast Eagles at Subiaco. Honestly for me the only real interest in this game is the fact it is a local derby. To tank or not to tank that is the question, with both teams closer to the wooden spoon than the flag, but provided they both turn up to play. Freemantle have lost their last nine games in a row but did secure the win over The Eagles in Round 6 by 13 points. Iasbet have Freemantle $1.65 and West Coast at $2.25 which is pretty standard acorss all the corporates. Forced to bet I would take the $1.68 offered at Sportsbet head to head.

Up at the Gabba, Brisbane Lions take on North Melbourne with caretaker coach Darren Crocker desperate for his first win. Don’t matter how much he prays to his chosen god, it’ not going to happen tonight. Brisbane have won 6 of 7 games against The Kangaroos at The Gabba andthere’s no reason for that to change with Brisbane in real contention and playing for a top four finish. Michael Voss has steered the Lions to four wins from their past five matches and six from eight at home in his maiden year. Brisbane is a skinny $1.18 at Centrebet which is the best you can get at the moment but to make it interesting take Brisbane 40+ at $2.15 with Sportsbet.

The final Saturday game see St Kilda take on The Bulldogs at Etihad.St Kilda remain unbeaten at the top of the ladder but don’t get a walk in the park here against third placed Western Bulldogs. Bulldogs are playing for pride of being genuine contenders for this years flag outside of Geelong and The Saints. Last time out St Kilda got home by 28 points at Etihad in Round 6 but are probably going better now than ever. Saints are leading the comeptition for tackles and #2 for blocks and smothers so their low average of 60.4 points conceded per game this year doesn’t suprise. The Dogs attack is classy and fast enough to really make this game the blockbuster of the weekend. Currently the best you can get is $1.58 for The Saints at Sportsbet but I really feel an upset on the way and if it happens it won’t be a huge margin, so jump on Western Bulldogs 1-39 at either Iasbet or Sportsbet at $3.25.

Sunday’s games kick off with Mebourne Demons taking on the Sydneys Swans at what will probably be a very cold and wet Manuaka Oval. Melbourne’s kids are definitely improving and held their own against Geelong’s C grade side last week; and Sydney did lose terribly against The Blues last week after looking some hope up to half time. If its as cold and we as I expect it will be at Canberra then Melbourne’s new flash game and star play maker Liam Jurrah could suffer. Couple that with the fact they’ve had seven changes including Russel Robertson, James Frawley and Jack Grimes and it’s difficult to see The Demons winning this. Given the conditions, the score won’t be high so Sydney 1-39 at Sportsbet, Iasbet and Sports Alive looks the way to go.

Essendon take on Richmond at the MCG and without even intentionally tanking, they are compelled to test new players and positions under new Coach Jade Rawlings with the only focus on next years season. A nice confidence building run toward the end of the season would be the ideal ramp toward 2010 but it won’t start tonight. Essendon can be equally as unimpressive at times bit have a little more to play for with each game for the next six rounds a must win for any finals hopes. Last time out in Round 9 at the MCG, The Bombers scored a 40 point win over the The Tigers and that looks very close the way the scoreline will read by the end, but the corporates aren;t making it easy with just $1.30 on offer at Iasbet and Sportsbet the best we can get. Essendon 1-39 at Sports Alive looks the way to go.

Final game of the weekend and another strong local derby game with Port Adelaide taking on the Adelaide Crows at AAMI Stadium. Port are coming off a 26 point win over The Crows in Round 6 and will be bolstered by the return of Shaun Burgoyne who has been out since Round 3 with a knee problem. Add to that Mark Williams has resigned for two years and Port still have finals to play for and The Power get the edge over The Crows who copped a drubbing at the hands of The Saints but had Adelaide had won seven on the trot prior to that. Port have won the last two local derbys and but are $2.55 outsiders at Sportsbet. That’ll do me nicely with my $200 free bet from the Sportsbet Super Saturday promotion, but for those a little more adverse, Port Power +11.5 on the line at Sportsbet is the way go.