Round one of the season is always a tricky one for punters with exposed form really only being shown for the NAB Cup finalists in the Bombers and the Magpies and NAB Challenge form not to be trusted. The early start to the week means selections haven’t been finalised so speculation as to final line-ups is rampant.
The Blues are comfortable favourites against the Tigers although some money has come for the outsiders on the back of Riewoldt not having a genuine opponent with Jamison suspended. The Tigers pre-season form has been woeful and even though they finished the season well last year it’s hard to see them switching things on straight away. Not a good match for betting.
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Form Stats
- Carlton has won the last five by an average of 65 points.
- Carlton topped 100 points in all but one match at the MCG last year.
Carlton 1.37 2.00 (-18.5)
Richmond 3.15 2.00 (+18.5)
On Friday night our traders think that the Saints recent dominance over the Cats will continue. The Cats have too many injuries to key experienced players such as Chapman, Ling, Mooney and Podsiadly. The line is -6.5 for the Saints and they are expected to cover that.
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Form Stats
- St Kilda has won three of the last four games against Geelong, all at the MCG.
- Geelong led at ¾ time on 16 occasions last year winning 13.
Geelong 2.15 2.00 (+6.5)
St Kilda 1.72 2.00 (+6.5)
At Etihad Stadium on Saturday it is very hard to bet against the reigning Premiers against the Power. The line is -44.5 for the Magpies and while it appears that this is easily covered our traders think that this margin is a risk as it is round one and the visitors have no exposed form as yet. Again another match that doesn’t invite betting.
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Form Stats
- Collingwood are 6-1 head to head in recent clashes.
- Collingwood has won both clashes at Etihad Stadium by 31 & 41 points.
Collingwood 1.08 2.00 (-44.5)
Port Adelaide 8.50 2.00 (+44.5)
Saturday night at AAMI Stadium is a much better match for the punters. The Crows are one team that is ready for Round 1 and our traders think they are over the odds for their match against the Hawks. They are celebrating 20 years in the competition since they beat the Hawks in their opening match in 1991 and they have a habit of winning milestone games. The Hawks new skipper Luke Hodge is unlikely to play and given their record at the venue they are definitely a risk.
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Form Stats
- Hawthorn has won once against Adelaide at AAMI Stadium in 17 years
Adelaide 1.97 2.00 (+2.5)
Hawthorn 1.85 2.00 (-2.5)
At the Gabba on Saturday our traders suggest waiting for final acceptances here. The Dockers have their injury concerns with many of their best 22 missing and Mundy underdone, but the only chance the Lions have of winning is if Jonathan Brown takes the field. If he plays he may spark the disappointing Lions to an upset.
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Form Stats
- Fremantle won their first game at the Gabba last season.
- Brisbane hasn’t been beaten in a season opener at the Gabba since 1998.
Brisbane Lions 2.25 2.00 (+7.5)
Fremantle 1.66 2.00 (-7.5)
The match of the round is the early game on Sunday between the Bombers and the Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium. The Bombers have been impressive under their new coaching regime, while the Bulldogs have been quietly going about things in the NAB Challenge. Our Traders think that the Bombers represent excellent value as they are up and going and the Bulldogs have had to utilise Williamstown to get some game time into stars such as Cooney and Lake.
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Form Stats
- The Western Bulldogs are 7-1 in recent clashes between the two teams.
- Essendon were the slowest starters last season winning just five first quarters
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Essendon 2.37 2.00 (+10.5)
Western Bulldogs 1.60 2.00 (-10.5)
Both the Demons and the Swans have injury concerns but given that the Swans list is longer, bolstered by the sudden retirement of Craig Bolton, gives the Dees the edge. Defensively the Swans are missing Bolton, Kennelly, Malceski and Roberts-Thomson so they will be stretched by the young forward line of the Demons. They should cover the line of -5.5.
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Form Stats
- Melbourne was behind at ¾ time 13 times last year and never came back for a win.
Melbourne 1.72 2.00 (-5.5)
Sydney 2.15 2.00 (+5.5)
The final match of the round is a tricky one with neither the Eagles nor the Kangaroos sparking interest. The home ground advantage is the only real key to the market here and our traders suggest and wait and see approach for both teams.
West Coast 1.65 2.00 (-6.5)
North Melbourne 2.25 2.00 (+6.5)