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AFL Sunday Specials: Demons & Port the picks to get crucial wins

Fri, Aug 11, 3:56pm by Jake Equid

Sunday’s action starts with a virtual elimination final at the MCG, before Hawthorn host North Melbourne in Tasmania and Port Adelaide are favoured to beat Collingwood.

Melbourne v St Kilda, MCG, Sunday August 13, 1:10pm AEST

There is nowhere to hide at the MCG on Sunday when the 10th placed Demons host the 11th placed Saints in a match that will all but end the losing team’s hopes of playing in the finals.

Melbourne opened at $1.66 but are now into $1.57 to beat St Kilda, who are out from $2.24 to $2.45 on the back of the news that their former-skipper and club legend Nick Riewoldt has not recovered from a concussion he received in last Sunday’s win over the Eagles, and will not play.

The line is out from 6.5 to 9.5 points, which may offer some value considering how evenly these two sides match up.

The Demons seemed to be well placed to make their first finals appearance for 11 years when they beat Port Adelaide in Round 18, but back-to-back losses against North Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney have seen them slip back outside the eight.

St Kilda’s campaign was all but over had they not beaten West Coast on Sunday, but Alan Richardson’s men have lived to fight another day after the thrilling eight-point result.

Speaking of eight points, that is exactly what this game is, an “eight-pointer”, with both sides on ten wins. Expect a tight contest, but we’re taking the Demons, who will have the edge in contested possession. They rank first in that category, with the Saints back in 10th.

Suggested Bet: Melbourne to win by 1-39 at $2.20

Port Adelaide v Collingwood, Adelaide Oval, Sunday August 13, 4:40pm AEST

The Power welcome the Magpies to the Adelaide Oval on Sunday, the same venue they were humbled at by their biggest rivals seven days earlier. Collingwood are coming off a 54-point win over the Kangaroos, and have put together a solid month of football that included three wins and a draw.

Port opened at $1.34 on Monday, and remain solid at $1.37. The Pies have been backed in from $3.27 to $3.15, while the line is at 20.5 points.

The hosts are sitting in fifth place on the ladder, and need to win this game to secure a spot in the finals, while their goal will be a home elimination final.

Brodie Grundy will miss through suspension, which will hurt the Magpies, especially considering the form of Power big-man Paddy Ryder. Darcy Moore may have to spend more time in the middle which puts a little extra pressure on their forward line.

Robbie Gray dominated the last time these sides meet, booting five goals in his side’s 31-point win in Round 14. He’s averaged nearly 19 touches and 2.2 goals per game this year.

The home side will be hurting from last weekend, before that loss, they’d won four of their last five at this venue, and they should be too strong again here.

Suggested Bet: Port Adelaide by 1 to 39 points: $2.10


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