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Caulfield Saturday – Best Bets, Odds and Preview

Fri, Apr 21, 3:50pm by Senior Writer

Saturday at Caulfield is a special Vobis Gold meeting, where big prizemoney is on offer for Victorian bred horses. That’s attracted plenty of numbers, and some quality fields. This meeting has become a real late autumn highlight in recent years.

Our Best of the Day in what should be a good day for the favourites is Race 4 No.9 Ruthven. This highly promising three-year-old stayer comes back from an excellent fourth in the Australian Derby at Randwick. Before that, he was narrowly beaten in a Group 2 2000m race at Moonee valley. He takes on the older horses here, but there is nothing special about the lot he meets.

He’s around the $2.20 mark, but may shorten further before raceday.

I reckon there’s a host of runners who could fit in the best value category, but the one I’ve settled on is Race 8 No.2 Demonstrate.

Now Demonstrate has let his backers down so far this campaign, but gets things firmly in his favour on Saturday. First of all, he is third up, and third up last time, he trounced his rivals by 3.5 lengths in a race on Geelong Cup Day. That was the second third-up win of his career. He also steps up to the 1200m.

He has been plain this time in, but if you look at the stewards report last time, you’ll see his jockey said he resented being inside runners from an inside barrier. On Saturday, he comes from barrier 14. Now, I wouldn’t normally be tipping horses drawn the carpark in 1200m races at Caulfield, but clearly this guy likes his space. We know he’s got a big finish, so if he can get a tow in off a decent tempo, he could be finishing over the top of them.
WATCH: Caulfield Best Bets – April 22

The best thing of all, he’s currently $17, which I think is ridiculous overs for a horse of his class.

Here’s the full race by race preview of Saturday’s Caulfield meeting.

Race 1 JRA Marathon Series – 4000m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Spur on Gold ($3.60)

2nd: 6. Shampion ($12)

3rd: 4. Prize ($4.20)

4th: 3. Bayanova ($2.75)

Summary: An inauspicious start to the day. Not sure why you plonk a 4000m experiment on a day like this, but here we are. Won’t be betting in it, but for the sake of the exercise, think Spur on Gold was good at Oakbank and can back up for the win here. The field in this race is not much better than he met there. Shampion looks the kind if horse who will appreciate a long trip and is good odds. Prize was freshened into that Oakbank race and should improve here, while Bayanova won a heat of this series last time. Does look unders though.

Race 2 Thomas North Hcp – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Unbreakable ($7)

2nd: 3. Pay Up Bro ($3.30)

3rd: 10. Mr Churchill ($5)

4th: 8. Kapset ($7)

Summary: Very even type of race, but Unbreakable looks good value if you forget his last run and go on his good win at Sandown previously. He’s had a win and two seconds from four starts at this track. Pay Up Bro is busting for a win and this looks a winnable race for him as well. Mr Churchill is in good winning form and can contend here, while Kapset has had a good campaign to date and has to be considered.

Race 3 Vobis Gold Mile – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Burning Front ($1.60)

2nd: 2. Zebrinz ($12)

3rd: 10. Bel Burgess ($11)

4th: 8. Ashdam ($51)

Summary: Burning Front looks to resume his winning ways here having been undone by a big weight and a hot pace. He gets off very well on the weights here and with that in mind, will prove impossible to run down. Zebrinz‘s campaign has been excellent and he’ll be close at the finish again here. Bel Burgess is in picket fence form and you’d back him in anything weaker than this. This is a step up however. Ashdam can show up at odds.

Race 4 Vobis Gold Heath – 2000m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 9. Ruthven ($2.20)

2nd: 3. Hard Call ($5.50)

3rd: 2. Tarquin ($11)

4th: 10. Rockstar Rebel ($6.50)

Summary: Ruthven should be winning this race, despite coming back 400m from his excellent run in the Australian Derby. As mentioned earlier, he should have lengths on these. Hard Call is in excellent form and is the main threat as he looks for a fourth straight win. Tarquin drops in class and can figure at double figure odds, while Rockstar Rebel has considerable promise but needs the penny to drop before he can start winning these races.

Race 5 Vobis Sires – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Seized ($5.50)

2nd: 10. Je Suis Tycoon ($3.40)

3rd: 2. Danger Deal ($11)

4th: 11. Pure Scot ($5.50)

Summary: This is a tough and even two-yea- old race, with only four of them having broken their maiden. Have landed on Seized as he’s been good in his two starts and natural improvement from there should see him in the finish. Je Suis Tycoon was very good late at Bendigo and is deservedly short in the market. Danger Deal comes to Melbourne off a hat-trick of Adelaide seconds but his race experience could prove important in this one. Pure Scot was just behind Je Suis Tycoon at Bendigo after winning there back in December. She looks a nice horse.

Race 6 Vobis Gold Distaff – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. French Emotion ($2.60)

2nd: 2. Whistle Baby ($4.20)

3rd: 4. Tidy Prophet ($15)

4th: 7. Diamond Baroness ($9)

Summary: French Emotion backs up off her fast-finishing fourth last week which caused us a bit of heartache here at AG. Dropping back 200m is a concern, but the weights are very much in her favour for a mare of her quality here back against her own sex. She should settle closer from barrier three and prove too good. Whistle Baby is the only mare who can beat here in my opinion. Her form this campaign has been very solid. Looking for more value, Tidy Prophet has a good second-up record and with an in-form jockey on board, can figure, while Diamond Baroness will sit on pace and give them something to chase.

Race 7 Vobis Gold Bel Esprit – 1100m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Kaepernick ($6)

2nd: 8. Crystal Dreamer ($9)

3rd: 1. Mahuta ($11)

4th: 12. Rocket Tommy ($7.50)

Summary: Great little sprint race here, with the promise of plenty of speed. With that in mind, have gone for Kaepernick. Comes back in class off two solid Group 1 runs and has a very good 1100m record. Crystal Dreamer won well first-up and has an impeccable second-up record. He’ll camp on the speed and give them something to chase. Mahuta is the quality in the field, but resumes short of his best distance, while Rocket Tommy just keeps on winning.

Race 8 Vobis Gold Sprint – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Demonstrate ($17)

2nd: 8. Tycoon Tara ($3.80)

3rd: 1. Thermal Current ($8.50)

4th: 11. Prussian Vixen ($10)

Summary: Another quality sprint, and think we have some value here with Demonstrate. Will improve greatly third-up and should be finishing hard. Tycoon Tara is a top class mare who failed first-up, but second-up last time beat Le Romain over this distance. That’s great form for this. Thermal Current has won some nice races over the 1200m and gets a suitable assignment here with the weight. Prussian Vixen is in superb form and will lead this for a long way

Race 9 Vobis Gold Reef – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 12. Sword of Light ($2.40)

2nd: 8. Think Babe ($6)

3rd: 7. Kazio ($3.90)

4th: 2. Fanfaron ($16)

Summary: Punters have fallen out of the trees to back Sword of Light in this and she’s been $3.50 into $2.40 since markets opened. She was a deserved winner here last time and should go on with it, despite a wide barrier. Think Babe is also drawn deep but has been good winning his past two and has a strong future. Kazio has a big finish on him, and was good last time at Bendigo, while Fanfaron is on the quick back-up and can figure at big odds.


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