IAsbet.com expert Racing Analyst, Gerard Twomey previews the Hollindale Stakes on the Gold Coast on Saturday and the two big group ones at Morphettville on Sunday, the SA Derby and the Goodwood.
Hollindale Stakes – Gold Coast Race 7
Heart Of Dreams maps really well here. Should be a moderate tempo with Femina Fashion to lead and Heart Of Dreams will get the run of the race, has the better turn of foot and the 1800 is his optimum distance.
The import Glass Harmonium has good form overseas and tuned up for this with a nice trial win over 1,000m and he’ll attract plenty of attention with punters. Shoot Out is up to a more suitable trip, but has been below his best so needs to show something in this. Triple Honour and My Kingdom of Fife are probably looking towards the Doomben Cup in a fortnight.
SA Derby – Morphettville Race 6 (Sunday)
Backgammon, Echoes of Heaven, Kittens and Jeter are all very even and have all come through the traditional lead up races in Adelaide with close finishes and luck in running determining results, with very little separating them.
We’re looking to the VRC St Leger as perhaps a better form line. Right Of Refusal looks a promising stayer in the making, following his dominant win over 2800m and he’ll again be suited by the big track. Integration also comes through that race when he pulled hard with blinkers for the first time but still found the line well. With the benefit of that experience he could settle better and can improve at odds. Precious Lorraine is a wildcard who is desperate for a firm track and should get conditions to suit.
The Goodwood – Morphettville Race 7 (Sunday)
Under set weights and penalties, Crystal Lily and Ortensia gets in very well with less than WFA. Crystal Lily comes through Black Caviar form lines and if she produces her best she should be too good for these. Ortensia is best at the 1200m when there is a solid tempo which she should get here and she’ll provide Jake Noonan with an excellent chance of riding his first Group One winner.
Three year old Shrapnel was a dominant winner of the Yallambee, then scratched from the heavy track in the Galaxy, but is untapped and has plenty of upside. Another Kavanagh runner, Catapulted, pulled up lame last time, but has since trialled well and is drawn to get the run of the race in this. The ultra-consistent Pinwheel gets a nice weight drop for his first attempt at Group One.
AFL – Round 7
Hawthorn ($1.18) are coming off the bye and will be too strong for Port Adelaide ($4.90) on Friday night, however the Power will be keen to show some spirit which has been questioned in recent weeks.
The Bulldogs ($1.75) meet the Swans ($2.10) in Canberra and have a good record there. They were shown up by Collingwood, but might have too many tricks for the consistent Swans who appear to lack goal kicking options. The Tigers ($2.35) host the Dockers ($1.60) at the MCG and will be confident they can beat a credible opponent in the Dockers who come off the bye.
Monday night’s game between the Saints and the Blues could provide punters with some value. In form Carlton ($1.43) are deserved favourites, but the proud Saints ($2.85) have much to prove while the Blues had a tough game in heavy conditions in Sydney so might be vulnerable.
NRL – Round 9
Interesting round for punters with top players required to back up after rep games (Australia $1.23 v New Zealand $4.25 and City $2.75 v Country $1.45).
It’s a pity that the Broncos ($2.50) and Storm ($1.53) clash follow as it would have been great to see which of these teams is going better with an eye to the Premiership. The Broncos have opted to rest star players Hodges, Lockyer, Thaiday while the guns from the Storm are all expected to play.
In the other feature game on Sunday the Dragons play the Cowboys. The Dragons ($1.50) are in scintillating form but have 10 players engaged in rep games so can’t be at their best for this. The Cowboys ($2.60) have been going along nicely having won their last three in a row and won’t get a better chance to knock off the premiers.
For those betting in Friday’s ANZAC test, the Kangaroos will be keen to atone for recent losses to the enemy from across the Tasman in the Four Nations and World Cup.