NRL Round 20 Betting

By Nick Haslem - July 21, 2010  

Last week in our NRL Round 19 betting article I scored 5/8, while our top Rugby League commentator “Deeross” scored 8/8, including the best value bet on Parramatta 1-12 paying $4.10.

This week is one of the toughest betting rounds I’ve seen in quite a long time. Almost every match could go either way, with off field variables that need to be taken into consideration as well.

The NRL competition is closely knit at the moment, with only minimal points separating the top half of the table. Taking a look at the odds this week you’ll notice quite a lot of heavy favourites, despite the closeness of the matches. I’m predicting there will be more than one upset this week, with great value for money.

My best tip for this week is to bet on a smaller amount of matches than usual, and to be bigger. NRL round 20 is too unpredictable, and trying to pick too many of the matches will be the downfall of many.

Canterbury Bulldogs Vs Parramatta Eels

If the Bulldogs had won last week, then they would have been favourites this week. The fact that they are now not in the running for a top 8 finish means that bookmakers have shortened the odds on Parramatta considerably.

The question punters have to answer this week is whether the fact that the Dogs lost last week will be critical to their performance this week, or will they play to the same standard. If they play to the same standard as last week, my bet is that they’ll win this match. Sadly, I don’t think they will though.

The Eels came from a 22-0 deficit against the Panthers last week to record their second straight victory. Jarryd Hayne looks to have finally found a bit of form and this week they’ll welcome the return of Timana Tahu.

Before the last two weeks though, their form was abysmal. They didn’t look like a competitive NRL side and they didn’t play like one. I’m not convinced they are going to be good enough to beat the dogs this week, but they’re in a position where they are the only team that has anything on the line.
Bulldogs Vs Eels Betting

Head to Head Betting

Bulldogs: $2.55
Eels: $1.52

Margin Betting

Bulldogs 1-12: $4.10
Bulldogs 13+: $5.85

Eels 1-12: $3.10
Eels 13+: $2.80
Tips and Predictions

Parramatta have won seven of the last eight matches between these two sides. Even though the Eels haven’t been playing well over the past couple of months, they have managed two wins in their last two starts. The Dogs don’t have anything to play for, but they have been performing well of late.

I’m predicting that the Eels will win this by 1-12 points paying $3.10. I’d love to back the Bulldogs at home here, but their performance is going to be too unpredictable now that they aren’t playing for a finals birth.

St George Illawarra Dragons Vs Gold Coast Titans

These are two teams that I describe as being in completely different situations. The Dragons aren’t playing well and are winning, while the Titans are playing well and losing.

The Titans have been piling on the pressure for long periods of their matches, but not putting the final touches to score points. Last week against the Broncos was a perfect example of their inability to convert possession into points.

The Dragons were lucky to escape with a victory against the Rabbitohs last week, and overall have been playing below their best in recent weeks. Now that they have the SOO out of the way, their byes and Gasnier has a couple of matches under his belt, I expect them to be back to their best against the Titans this week.
Dragons Vs Titans Betting

Head to Head Betting

Dragons: $1.25
Titans: $4.00

Margin Betting

Dragons 1-12: $2.95
Dragons 13+: $2.10

Titans 1-12: $5.50
Titans 13+: $11.00
Tips and Prediction

It’s hard not to pick the Dragons to win by 13+ in this match. I can’t see a Titans victory coming, so the two options are between 1-12 and 13+. The Dragons have won 6/7 against the Titans, but the two teams have not yet met at WIN Jubilee.

The Titans have been unlucky to lose recent matches, like the 13+ loss to the Broncos last week. Even if the Gold Coast do play well in this match though, I’m expecting the Dragons to lift this week and be far too good.

Dragons to win by 13+ looks solid, but the $2.10 about it isn’t too appealing.

Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks

These two teams couldn’t be coming off more contrasting weeks. The Raiders obliterated the disgraceful Knights last week, while the Sharks were almost as woeful against a struggling Manly team.

Ricky Stuart has left the club this week, leaving the assistant coach in charge. The only thing going for the Sharks this week is that teams tend to play out of their skins the first match after a coach leaving the club.
Raiders Vs Sharks Betting

Head to head Betting

Raiders: $1.38
Sharks: $3.10

Margin Betting

Raiders 1-12: $3.10
Raiders 13+: $2.35

Sharks 1-12: $4.60
Sharks 13+: $8.00
Tips and Prediction

Cronulla have actually won the last five times these two teams have played at Canberra Stadium. That’s a great record at a stadium that many teams struggle at.

The Raiders won their first match by 13+ last week, the 40-0 half time lead helped them out a little bit with that. The Sharks on the other hand have lost 3 matches by 1-12 and 9 by 13+

My prediction is for a Raiders win. Depending on what sort of Sharks mindset is in place, will largely affect the amount of points piled on. Until last week the Raiders were really struggling with scoring points. The Sharks are a scrappy side that will make it difficult for the Raiders as well.

This match is being played at 5:30pm on Saturday, a far cry from the sunny Sunday afternoon last week.

The margin is touch and go in this one. I’m more inclined to get the $1.91 about the -8 point start for the Raiders.

Melbourne Storm Vs Penrith Panthers

This is match that I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won by 13+. The Storm have been having a terrible time playing away in places like Adelaide, Perth and New Zealand in recent weeks. That coupled with the salary cap fiasco and the uncertainty around the future of their players has made for some poor performances. They have been struggling to get points on the board, even with their Maroon stars.

Are the Panthers now on a backwards slide? They beat they Dragons a few weeks back and haven’t done anything since. The were kept at bay by a dogged Warriors team and blew a 22 point lead last week against the Eels.

One would assume that they have more to play for in this match and are in better form than the Storm. But the Storm have more quality throughout their salary cap breaking side. Are they going to bother playing to their best this week though?
Storm Vs Panthers Betting

Head to Head Betting

Storm: $1.68
Panthers: $2.20

Margin Betting

Storm 1-12: $3.25
Storm 13+: $3.25

Panthers 1-12: $3.85
Panthers 13+: $4.65
Tips and Prediction

The Storm have lost five out of their last six matches, with the last three by 1-12 points. I’m predicting much of the same will happen this week with the Panthers managing to win by 1-12 paying $3.85 at Sportingbet Australia.

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Newcastle Knights

The Cowboys played fairly well last week and should have beaten the Dragons. They’ll be playing at home against a side that was disgraced by Canberra last week.

This bottom of the table clash won’t be pretty on the eye, or even worth watching to many neutral fans. The Australian bookmakers have the Cowboys as heavy favourites, and I tend to agree with them.
Cowboys Vs Knights Betting

Head to Head Betting

Cowboys 1-12: $3.10
Cowboys 13+: $3.10

Knights 1-12: $4.05
Knights 13+: $5.15
Tips and Prediction

I expect the Knights to be far better in defense than they were last week against the Raiders. That being said, they now have to travel up North and take on a Cowboys outfit that looked capable of flogging the Tigers last week.

I saw enough flimmers of hope last week to make me believe the Cowboys will get up in this one. The Knights will markedly improve and the Cowboys will switch off enough to make this game a contest.

I’m getting on the Cowboys to win this one 1-12 @ $3.10.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs New Zealand Warriors

The Rabbitohs just can’t seem to do enough to get a win in recent weeks. They’ve been winning for large periods of their matches, but losing late on. Since losing Isaac Luke, Souths just aren’t winning. They have now lost four of their last five.

The Warriors are quite the opposite. They’ve been going great guns, with their defense proving good enough to hold the opposition at bay. They now have five wins in a row and are looking for a sixth, to make it the longest winning streak of any side in the 2010 NRL season.
Souths vs Warriors Betting

Head to Head Betting

Souths: $1.60
Warriors: $2.35

Margin Betting

Souths 1-12: $3.10
Souths 13+: $3.10

Warriors 1-12: $4.05
Warriors 13+: $5.15
Tips and Prediction

The Warriors have won their last five in a row, while Souths have lost four of thier last five. The Warriors have a great record against the Rabbitohs, winning 15/21.

South do have the home ground, and historically the Warriors have struggled away from home which is why the bookies have Souths as favourites.

On form alone though, surely you have to go with the Warriors? $2.35 is looking tasty, with the $4.05 about 1-12 looking fat and juicy to me.

I’m getting on the Warriors here. Great value to be had.

Manly Sea Eagles Vs Wests Tigers

I would have thought the Tigers would be favourites in this match because it’s being played on the Central Coast. The Tigers are sitting third on the ladder, while Manly are in 6th position.

Betting odds aside, I think Manly are in much better form than the Tigers. Wests were terrible against the Cowboys on Monday night and have luckily escaped with victories in recent weeks. Teams that play after a Monday night match tend to perform badly as well.
Manly Vs Tigers Betting

Head to Head Betting

Manly: $1.58
Tigers: $2.40

Margin Betting

Manly 1-12: $3.10
Manly 13+: $3.00

Tigers 1-12: $4.05
Tigers 13+: $5.25
Tips and Prediction

The Tigers are getting wins on the board, despite playing well below their best. Manly have been disappointing this year, with a win against the Sharks inflating punters’ perception of how good they actually are.

Tigers paying $2.40 is great value here, with 1-12 @ $4.05 even better. This match is a coin flip because it’s being played on the Central Coast.

I’m going to make judgment on this at the last minute before betting. Much the same as I did last week when I ended up betting on the Roosters 1-12. Currently, I’m leaning towards Manly.

Brisbane Broncos Vs Sydney Roosters

Last time the Roosters played on a Monday night they upset the Titans at Skilled stadium. I was pretty disappointed in the performances of the Broncos last week, namely Thaiday and Lockyer.

The Roosters are firing on all cylinders at the moment, and just like the Warriors match, I have to tip based on current form and not home ground advantage.
Broncos vs Roosters Betting

Head to Head Betting

Broncos: $1.56
Roosters $2.40

Margin Betting

Broncos 1-12: $3.15
Broncos 13+: $2.90

Roosters 1-12: $4.05
Roosters 13+: $5.50
Tips and Prediction

The Broncos definitely don’t deserve their short odds in this match. The bookies are heavily favouring this home teams this week, and this match is no different.

I’m getting on the Roosters by 1-12 paying $4.05. I’ll be attending this match on Monday night, it’ll be a cracker.

NRL Round 20 Best Bet

My best bet for this round is going to be a three leg multi bet with great value:

1. Panthers 1-12 @ $3.85
2. Warriors 1-12 @ $4.05
3. Roosters 1-12 @ $4.05

= 63/1.

Bet on either of these, or all of them and you’ll come out ahead.