NRL Round 22 Betting
By Nick Haslem - August 5, 2010
Last week our resident NRL commentator “Deeross” provided the tips for NRL round 21 after scoring a perfect 8/8 in Round 19. The pressure got to him though as he stumbled to a success rate of just 50% with 4/8.
In the past two weeks I’ve managed to get to see the Broncos Vs Roosters, as well as the game against the Dragons on Sunday afternoon. These three teams are currently the top three teams in betting to win the 2010 NRL premiership.
The current NRL premiership odds courtesy of Centrebet are:
Dragons: $3.85
Roosters: $6.00
Broncos: $7.00
Panthers: $7.50
Sea Eagles: $8.50
Tigers: $11.00
Eels: $13.00
NRL Round 22 betting is one that has caught my eye this week. The matches could go either way, with the betting as open as I have seen it this year. The odds were released a few hours late yesterday, and since then prices have been fluctuating significantly.
My recommendation is to check Centrebet, Sportingbet and Sportsbet because the odds differ a fair bit. In some cases, the online bookmakers have different favourites than what’s posted on here. This week the odds come courtesy of our friends at Centrebet Australia.
North Queensland Cowboys Vs Brisbane Broncos
The Broncos have a great record against the Cowboys having won their last six encounters. The Broncos have more to play for this week, but I still believe they are an overrated side.
The Cowboys haven’t been playing too badly, and have given teams like the Tigers and Panthers a run for their money in recent times. They tend to come charging out of the blocks and then fade away in the second half.
Cowboys Vs Broncos Odds
Head to Head Betting
Margin Betting
Cowboys 1-12: $4.05
Cowboys 13+: $7.30
Broncos 1-12: $2.90
Broncos 13+: $2.62
Predictions and Tip
The Broncos are coming off the back of several big matches, none bigger than the last two against the Roosters and Dragons. They have a fairly easy run to the finals, and might struggle to get up for this one.
The Cowboys haven’t been playing as bad as everyone thinks, but don’t seem to have that winning mentality that is needed.
The Broncos should win this match, but I’m not overly confident about it. It’ll be a high scoring match, so look to get on the overs when that line becomes available.
Prediction: Broncos 1-12 in a high scoring match.
Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels
A couple of weeks ago everyone had predicted the Titans to fall into oblivion and never be heard of again this season. After wins against the Dragons and Titans they return home to play against the Eels. With a strong record against the Eels, many pundits are predicting another Titans win. I beg the differ.
The Titans have beaten the Dragons who have now lost 3/4, and the Warriors who look like they are going backwards after winning five in a row. The Eels were on a good run until they met the form team of the competition, so losing to them won’t worry them too much I wouldn’t think. The Titans form at home this year is only 5/9, considerably down from previous years.
Titans Vs Eels Odds
Head to Head Betting
Margin Betting
Titans 1-12: $3.10
Titans 13+: $3.85
Eels 1-12: $3.85
Eels 13+: $4.85
Predictions and Tip
I think this match provides real value for those that want to get on the Eels. I’m getting on the Eels 13+ @ $4.85. The Titans are now overrated because of a couple of decent wins, and the Eels have been written off due to a heavy loss to the in-form Roosters.
The Eels are capable of racking up a big score here, and I think they’ll do it.
Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm
Another upset is well on the cards here. The Storm are fired up after finding out their team is rapidly falling apart. They tore the Raiders apart last weekend and they’ll love nothing more than to do the same to Manly on their home ground.
Noone knows what sort of Manly team will show up, and they’ll be trying to back up after a Monday night match, which is notoriously difficult.
Sea Eagles vs Storm Odds
Head to Head Betting
Sea Eagles: $1.65
Storm: $2.26
Margin Betting
Sea Eagles 1-12: $3.05
Sea Eagles 13+: $3.25
Storm 1-12: $3.45
Storm 13+: $5.70
Predictions and Tip
If the Knights can beat Manly by 13+, then the $5.70 here for the Storm looks like good value. I don’t think that’ll be the case though, with a Storm 1-12 victory looking good for me.
I think the Storm will rise to the occasion, they have a point to prove and I think they’ll be good enough.
Cronulla Sharks Vs New Zealand Warriors
The fact that the Warriors are still in the eight makes most people pick them “because they have something to play for.” The fact of the matter is that they simply aren’t good enough. Their away form is always deplorable, and they have a shocking record at Cronulla. The Warriors hopes have been inflated because they went on a five match winning streak, which will prove to be the highlight of their 2010 season.
The Sharks have been playing well since Ricky Stuart left the club. They were fired up against the Raiders and looked likely to win, and were desperately unlucky against the Tigers last week. They did everything except win the game against the top four club.
Sharks vs Warriors Odds
Head To Head Betting
Margin Betting
Sharks 1-12: $3.45
Sharks 13+: $5.70
Warriors 1-12: $3.05
Warriors 13+: $3.25
Predictions and Tip
The Sharks have had no shortage in effort and motivation in recent weeks. This week they’ll be good enough to win against a stumbling Warriors side who struggle to travel.
Sharks 1-12 @ $3.45 on Centrebet.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers
You almost want to tip against the Tigers because of how poorly they have been playing in recent weeks. That being said, everything is in their favour this week. Souths are without Dave Taylor and Sam Burgess while the Tigers are almost at full strength. After a 50-10 drubbing last time they played, the Tigers will see this match as an opportunity to prove how much they’ve improved since their flogging last time these two sides met.
Rabbitohs Vs Tigers Odds
Head to head Betting
Margin Betting
Souths 1-12: $3.75
Souths 13+: $6.20
Wests 1-12: $2.95
Wests 13+: $2.95
Predictions and Tip
Without any real confidence I have to pick the Tigers. Souths look like they are too depleted and won’t have enough firepower to beat the Tigers here. Souths have a tough run to the finals so will definitely be looking to lift for this match.
My prediction is for the Tigers to fumble and bumble their way to another 1-12 point victory.
Newcastle Knights Vs Canterbury Bulldogs
The Knights are backing up after a deserved victory against the Sea Eagles on Monday night. They had 10 points on the board before Manly even had possession. The team at Centrebet think the Knights are certainties with Neil Evans making it his bet of the week. I find that hard to believe, with the Dogs in reasonable form and still a mathematical chance to make the eight.
Knights Vs Bulldogs Odds
Head to Head Betting
Knights: $2.02
Bulldogs: $1.80
Margin Betting
Knights 1-12: $3.15
Knights 13+: $4.85
Bulldogs 1-12: $3.15
Bulldogs 13+: $3.85
Predictions and Tip
The Bulldogs will be too solid for the Knights in this match. They won’t be ambushed like the Sea Eagles were and will be ready from the get go. I expect the Knights to struggle to get back up after their Monday night victory.
Bulldogs 1-12.
Sydney Roosters Vs St George Illawarra Dragons
The Roosters have been in stunning form in the past five weeks and are the form team of the competition. They should be favourites for this match with the recent form of the Dragons (1/4).
That being said, the Roosters haven’t played anyone with defense as good as the Dragons. They win their matches by out scoring their opponents, while letting plenty in. It remains to be seen how they’ll react when they can’t pile on the points.
The Dragons have been losing, but their defense has remained solid. Their attack has become predictable, but I don’t think they’ll be concerned about it at all. Comparisons have been drawn to last season, but I think the opposite is happening, saving themselves for a finals run.
They are only now back on their feet after origin and having two byes close together. They welcome the return of Weyman, Young and Fien. Jeremy Smith is also playing in his third match back and Gasnier will be starting for the second game in a row.
Roosters vs Dragons Odds
Head to Head Betting
Roosters: $1.95
Dragons: $1.85
Margin Betting
Roosters 1-12: $3.15
Roosters 13+: $4.50
Dragons 1-12: $3.15
Dragons 13+: $4.05
Predictions and Tip
I predict this match will play out similar to when the two sides met earlier this year. The Roosters were leading 6-4 at half time before the Dragons blew them away to win 28-6.
Realistically, this match could go either way and will definitely be the match of the round. The Roosters have won five in a row, and are coming up against the table topping Dragons in a pre-finals match that will indicate who the favourite will be.
The team that wins will get the psychological advantage going into the finals. Dragons are a mentally tough team, and live for the grind.
Dragons to win 1-12.
Canberra Raiders Vs Penrith Panthers
The Raiders were flogged last week in yet another disappointing performance to halt their run to the finals. The Panthers beat the Cowboys unconvincingly, but deserve more credit than they are getting.
Raiders vs Panthers Odds
Head to Head Betting
Raiders: $1.95
Panthers: $1.85
Margin Betting
Raiders 1-12: $3.15
Raiders 13+: $4.50
Panthers 1-12: $3.15
Panthers 13+: $4.05
Predictions and Tip
The Raiders don’t have an impressive home record this season and are too inconsistent for me. The Panthers have won the last three encounters and should be able to grind out a win here, even though they aren’t playing particularly well.
Panthers 1-12.
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2 comments
Deeross Thursday 5th August 2010 at 06:04 pm
Last week was another poor performance with only 4/8 for the scond week running, hopefully this week can go a little smoother. There was a couple of good tips last week, however there was also a couple of upsets that I didn’t see coming, namely the Knights dominating the Eagles…. that being said, everytime the Eagles have started to look good this year they have lost to a bad team.
Cowboys Vs Broncos – For the third week in a row the cowboys were up at half time and blew their lead in the second half, and in those 3 second half performances they have only scored 2 tries (both in the same game). The Bronco’s showed a lot of steel in defence last week to keep the Dragons on a lowly 6 points, however watching the game it was evident the Dragons tried the same backline movements for about 65 minutes, and in the last 15 they started to flare it up and through this they almost snatched victory from the Broncos. The Cowboys have not had a lot of structure in attack, and they have a lot of defensive lapses which is why they are unable to convert a half time lead to a victory. I think the Broncos for this one and 13+
Titans Vs Parra – The Titans have done well over the last coupe of weeks to beat the Dragons and travel accross the Tasman to beat the out of sorts Warriors. I predicted the demise of the Titans 3 weeks ago, and it seems as though they read my tips and decide to do the exact opposite everytime I tip for or against them. The Eels were outclassed by the red hot Roosters last week and got done by 36 points, it seems that they got a taste of their own medicine that they were dishng out last year to just about every club leading up to the finals. This is a very hard one to tip, a lot of people are leaning towards the Titans, however if the Eels are to have any threat in the finals they need to win this one whether its a grinding victory or a steamrolling performance. I’m going Parra for this one but not confindent in the margin as it could easily be 1-12 or 13+.
Eagles Vs Storm – The Eagles were bitterly disappointing last week against the Knights in what I thought would easily be a 13+ victory to the Eagles. They played quite poorly and didn’t show any of the promise that they have showed in recent weeks, and I think this is the 3rd or 4th time they have looked good and then slumped this season. The Storm haven’t travelled well this year, however they have been shipped all over the place in recent weeks to Perth, Adelaide and Auckland. After their 3 weeks of cross country travelling they played 2 games at home and won against the Raiders and Panthers. Now they are making a trip to Brookvale oval in Sydney, commonly known as “The Fortress”. This season “The Fortress” has been more like “The Embassy” as the Eagles have invited many away teams into their try line on more than a few occasions. This week will be no different for the Eagles, The Storm will win this one in what I believe will be a fiery contest, 1-12.
Rabbitohs Vs Tigers – The Rabbitohs were outclassed by the hungry Bulldogs last week, a team that is swimming upstream and relying on other games to make the finals. The Rabbitohs now find themselves in a similar postition to the Doggies as their run home is harder than any other. The difference between the Doggies and Souths is that the Bulldogs are fielding a near full strength side, and the Rabbitohs are missing a few influential players. Tigers have been winning and winning ugly over the last 10 weeks, winning 8 of their last 10 and only one of these was by 13+. I have been tipping the Tigers for most of these weeks and have not been conivnced at all, however they keep winning so I have to keep tipping them. They were also embarrassed by Souths last time they met where they got flogged by about 40 or 50 points, and this will be a massive motivation for them to come into this game with all cylinders firing. I’m tipping the Tigers for the win here, 1-12 based on the last 10 weeks.
Sharks Vs Warriors – The Sharks have improved a bit since the appointment of their new coach, and last week they should have been awarded the victory except it was snatched from them, not by the Tigers but byt the Referee Jason Robinson. A clear try was called a double movement, i’m surprised that ref is still walking with the living to tell the truth. The Warriors have been in a bit of a form slump since winning 5 in a row between rounds 14-19, since then losing to Souths and the Titans last week. Their defence has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks, and the Sharks attack is once again starting to develop with the back 3 looking a lot more dangerous. I think the home ground advantage is enough to get the Sharkies over the line in this one for their first win under new coach Shane Flanagan. 1-12 for the Sharks
Knights Vs Bulldogs – This is probably the hardest tip of week for mine, the Knights impressed last week against the Eagles and showed some great form, especially the fast footed Uate bagging a hatrick in the first half. The Bulldogs also showed up against the Rabbitohs last week and had a really good win over them, they played how they should have been playing all year. The Knights have a good record against the bulldogs at Energy Australia stadium, however they also had a really good record against the Cowboys at Dairy farmers and look where that got them. If the Bulldogs win their next 5 games they are a chance of making the finals if a few results go their way, the Knights are only on 1 more win than the Dogs for the year, however this 1 win gives them a much higher chance of scraping through. That being said I don’t think the Knights can win 5 in a row, the Bulldogs can. Very seldom does a team win after a Monday night victory due to the shorter turn around, the Roosters did it last week but the Knights are another team. I’m gonna go the Doggies for this one, but this is based on a coin flip.
Roosters Vs Dragons – Well last week I read a few articles stating the Broncos Vs Dragons was going to be the match of the week, I myself thought that the Roosters Parra game would me much more exciting. And after 65 minutes of a near comatose state I was awoken in the last 15 to what should have been the whole game in the Sunday match between the Broncos and Dragons. The Roosters game on the other hand went as expected, over 50 points scored in a try coring bonanza, most of it was the red hot Roosters bagging 48 points. The Roosters have scored 118 points in the last 3 weeks, this is almost a third of the points the Dragons have mustered up in 19 matches. The Roosters also played Parra who were the highest scoring team over the 3 weeks preceding with 102 points scored. Now they find themselves up against a team that has scored just 40 points over 4 weeks, 10 points a week. If you were not familiar with the game of Rugby league you would probably put your house on the Roosters, however these statistics mean nothing when you take into account that its the table topping Dragons we are talking about. This one could go either way, as the Roosters defence has not been the strongest (except for last week where they only leaked 12 points to the now 2nd best attacking team in the comp at the moment). If the Dragons want to win this one they will need to score atleast 4 tries as this is how many the Roosters will be able to score, I think there will be about 40 points total in this match, and I’m going the Roosters 1-12, they are just too good at the moment, and they will be the first team to win 6 in a row this year.
Raiders Vs Panthers – Raiders travelled to Melbourne last week and continued with their poor form against them, they have hardly won any games against them at all. Panthers also lost to the Storm 2 weeks ago, but only by 8 points, which would make me lean towards the Panthers in this one. The raiders have got a very good record against the Panthers at Canberra stadium though, and they are also very good Monday night performers. I think the Raiders will get up in this one, only because I thought the Panthers were having a cracker of a season and it appers as thought their true colours are shining through. Raiders 1-12
Deeross Thursday 5th August 2010 at 06:31 pm
Just read through your tips again there Nick, looks like we have both tipped a few under dogs this week to get up in the Eels, Storm and Sharkies. I love betting on an underdog, especially when I think they are going to carve up the other team. The best team of recent weeks has been the Roosters, they have been the underdogs in about 3 or 4 of their 5 wins in a row, and I have been loving this as I’ve been getting on them the whole time. This week I can’t just happily put anything on them as i’m a bit worried but I still think they’ll get up.
I think that the safest of the above under dogs is the Storm, I hate tipping for the Storm as you never know which team will show up this year, but they are playing the Eagles who have been somewhat a rival club over the last few years. I remember watching the Eagles beat the Storm 40-0 in the Grand final of ’08, and if Bellamy reminds his over paid players of this embarrassment of a Grand Final performance I’m sure this will be enough to get them over the line. The run home for the Storm after this weekend is Souths, Sharks, Tigers and the Knights, so that makes this weekend like GF weekend for them as the last 4 games are against quite poor teams. This could even be 13+, but even the head to head odds are good enough for me to invest in.