NRL Round 23 Betting

By Nick Haslem - August 11, 2010  

What a terrible week of NRL betting round 22 was. After predicting a whole host of underdogs and “clever” tips, just 2/8 came through. Our in-house Rugby League commentator “deeross” didn’t go much better either, sitting with me on 2/8. Not to worry though, this week is shaping up much better and we’ll try and pick you some more winners.

I’d like to make special mention of the fact that Centrebet Australia get their odds out well before Sportingbet and Sportsbet. If you like to jump on early then Centrebet is definitely the place to start. The same can be said for A-league betting.

Make sure you take the time to shop around for the best lines and odds at the best Australian bookmakers. Please note that not all of the betting markets are currently available so I’ll update the article as that information becomes available.

Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters

The Roosters will dominate this match. They picked up a couple of injuries in their loss to the Dragons, but they’ll demolish the Sharks here.
Sharks vs Roosters Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Sharks: $3.35
Roosters: $1.32

Margin Betting Odds

Sharks 1-12: $4.85
Sharks 13+: $8.40

Roosters 1-12: $3.00
Roosters 13+: $2.19
Predictions and Tips

The Roosters will take the Sharks apart. The early line of -8.5 for the Roosters @ $1.90 is a great bet here. Get on it.

Update 11/8: The line has now moved to -9.5 since the initial time of writing.

Prediction: Roosters 13+

Brisbane Broncos Vs Parramatta Eels

The Broncos are still yet to convince me and without Lockyer there could be trouble. That being said, the Eels were woeful in the second half against the Titans last week. This game will be a good test to see how the young Broncos backs stand up without their experienced play maker at the helm.
Broncos vs Eels Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Broncos: $1.80
Eels: $2.01

Margin Betting Odds

Broncos 1-12: $3.10
Broncos 13+: $3.85

Eels 1-12: $3.20
Eels 13+: $4.85
Tips and Predictions

I’m going to reserve judgement on this match until later in the week. My initial reaction to this match is a Broncos 1-12 victory.

Update 11/8: Looks like Lockyer is going to be playing this week. The Broncos have an 8/11 record at home to the Eels.

Prediction: Broncos to win.

Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys

The Titans blew the Eels off the park in the second half last week putting 34 points on them. The Cowboys always look dangerous but can’t seem to come up with the goods. They’ll be without Thurston, so who knows they might put something together this week.
Titans vs Cowboys Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Titans: $1.19
Cowboys: $4.65

Margin Betting Odds

Titans 1-12: $3.25
Titans 13+: $1.77

Cowboys 1-12: $6.30
Cowboys 13+: $12.00
Tips and Predictions

I’m tipping a Titans victory here, but don’t think it will be a white wash. I actually like the +13.5 the Cowboys are getting. It’s an all Queensland affair and the Titans haven’t had the best home record this season.

That being said though, if they are to do anything this season this is a must win game.

Update 11/8: The line is now 14 points and the Titans have shortened into just $1.19. The Cowboys will be without Thurston.

Prediction: Titans win.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Canberra Raiders

What a disgrace the Bulldogs were last week against the Knights. They’ve shown they are capable of doing that all season long. Last time I didn’t give them a chance though, they beat Souths. It could be much of the same this week against an erratic Raiders team who I desperately need to understand more. They were clearly outplayed in the first half against the Panthers and were gone for all money, then they come out in the second half and set the world alight.
Bulldogs vs Raiders Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Bulldogs: $1.85
Raiders: $1.95

Margin Betting Odds

Bulldogs 1-12: $3.15
Bulldogs 13+: $4.05

Raiders 1-12: $3.15
Raiders 13+: $4.50
Tips and Predictions

This is an absolute coin flip as to who will turn up. Someone obviously knew Canberra were onto something last week as one happy punter put 15k on the Raiders to get up. Canberra are still a mathematical chance of making the eight, but realistically they won’t make it.

Update 11/8: This is the match that I’ve been having the most trouble with lately. I’ve been pouring through the stats and the ones that jump out at me most are there most recent results:
Canterbury are 1/4
Canberra are 4/5

On that note I’m going to have to take the Raiders.

Prediction: Raiders win.

New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights

This match could provide the best value of the round, if you think the Knights are a chance. I still think the Warriors are overrated, and their victory against the Sharks is masking their true abilities.

The Knights are close to the form team of the competition at the moment, and are looking good with the fact that the Warriors lost their last home game to the Titans.
Warriors vs Knights Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Warriors: $1.44
Knights: $2.75

Margin Betting Odds

Warriors 1-12: $2.90
Warriors 13+: $2.62

Knights 1-12: $4.05
Knights 13+: $7.30
Tips and Predictions

I’m predicting this match will go a similar way to the Warriors vs Titans a couple of weeks ago. The question is whether the Warriors will throw the match away like they did that day.

I’d love to back the Knights here, but the 5.5 points just isn’t enough. I’m going to analyse this one more in depth because I don’t think the $1.50 about the Warriors has anything to do other than the home ground advantage.

Update 11/8: The line is now 6.5 points. The Warriors have won 5/6 of recent matches between these two teams. At Mt Smart Stadium they actually have a losing record against the Knights which is an interesting statistic. Newcastle have now won 5/7 of their last matches, which includes an extra time loss.

Prediction: I’m sticking to my guns here and predicting a massive upset. Knights win.

Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Storm were well and truly beaten last week against Manly but return home to take on a Souths team buoyed by a last play victory against the Tigers. Last time these two teams played Souths came up with the good in Perth.

Souths will have three players back this week, with Sam Burgess the biggest addition after serving his suspension.
Storm vs Rabbitohs Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Storm: $1.44
Rabbitohs: $2.75

Margin Betting Odds

Storm 1-12: $2.90
Storm 13+: $2.62

Rabbitohs 1-12: $4.05
Rabbitohs 13+: $7.30
Tips and Predictions

Even though the Storm were well and truly beaten last week they should do it easy here. They are at home and playing against a Souths team that is out of form, but coming off a win against a poor Tigers team.

Souths lost John Sutton last week, who along with Isaac Luke has been instrumental in their team. Storm should win this.

Update 11/8: Not much has changed except Inglis has now signed with the Broncos. Now that is cleared up he might be in for a blinder.

Prediction: Storm win.

Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers

The Panthers are specials here. They welcome back their halfback Luke Walsh and fullback Lachlan Coote. These two players will provide the impetus needed to come out on top here.

The Tigers will go backwards, and fast after last week. They have been on the verge of collapsing all season long and this week we’ll begin to see that. We sent some AustralianGambling.com.au employees to the game last week and they all came back saying the Tigers are gone for the season. The fans were not impressed at all.
Tigers vs Panthers Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Tigers: $2.02
Panthers: $1.80

Margin Betting odds

Tigers 1-12: $3.15
Tigers 13+: $4.85

Panthers 1-12: $3.15
Panthers 13+: $3.85
Tips and Predictions

The Panthers will win here, despite the match being played at Campbelltown. The Tigers are going to crash.

You heard it here first. This is the bet of the week. Get all over the Panthers (gamble responsibly of course).

Update 11/8: Looks like Coote won’t be playing this week. Still think Panthers are a solid bet.

Prediction: Panthers win.

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles

The Dragons are coming off the back off a big victory against the Roosters last week. I believe their other main rival is the Sea Eagles, a team who beat them earlier in the season. The Dragons will be looking to build from last week, and get the confidence they need going into the 2010 NRL finals by beating one of their main rivals.

Manly were impressive against the Storm last week, but on the whole have struggled for consistency. They’ll need to improve significantly from their last away performance when they were flogged by the Knights.
Dragons vs Sea Eagles Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Dragons: $1.48
Sea Eagles: $2.66

Margin Betting Odds

Dragons 1-12: $3.05
Dragons 13+: $2.69

Sea Eagles 1-12: $3.95
Sea Eagles 13+: $6.50
Tips and Predictions

The Dragons will win this match by 13+. It’s an unlucky time for Manly to be meeting the Dragons, as they’ll play one of their best matches of the season. If you aren’t quite so confident, the -6 point spread is still decent.

I’m getting on the Dragons 13+ here. I’m convinced they are a good thing.

Stay tuned for updates to odds and tips as the week progresses. I’ll also be posting the best bets of the week.

Update 11/8: No real update in the odds or anything else for that matter except that Jeremy Smith signed for the Sharks next season.

Prediction: Dragons win.