NRL Round 24 Betting 2010
By Nick Haslem - August 18, 2010
Last week in NRL round 23 betting we were a little below par again. My upset didn’t come off so I scored 4/8, while our top NRL commentator “deeross” scored 5/8.
This week it doesn’t get any easier, but in comparison to previous weeks my tips and predictions are straight forward.
This weeks odds are presented by Sportingbet Australia.
Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos
The Knights have been good in recent weeks, especially at home. They took apart Manly and Canterbury at home before losing in New Zealand last week. They return home to play a Broncos team that is coming off the back of a home loss to the Parramatta Eels.
Knights vs Broncos Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Margin Betting Odds
Knights 1-12: $3.65
Knights 13+: $4.00
Broncos 1-12: $3.50
Broncos 13+: $3.50
Predictions and Tips
Both of these teams are coming off a loss and will be looking to improve. The Knights are all but gone from the top 8 race, but the Broncos are still in it. This alone won’t be enough, because they are without Lockyer and are away from home.
This is a danger match for the Broncos, but if they are going to have any chance in the NRL 2010 season, it’s close to a must win game.
Prediction: Broncos win.
Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Panthers churned out yet another disappointing performance last week as they continue to fade into oblivion. The Rabbitohs are playing as best they can with a limited amount of troops going around. If Souths were at full strength, they’d be close to favourites here. The fact that Souths are depleted and the match is being played at Penrith gives them favouritism. Is that justified though?
Panthers vs Rabbitohs Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Panthers: $1.48
Rabbitohs: $2.65
Margin Betting Odds
Panthers 1-12: $3.10
Panthers 13+: $2.65
Rabbitohs 1-12: $4.25
Rabbitohs 13+: $6.15
Predictions and Tips
Without any real confidence most punters will be siding with the Panthers here. Souths went down fighting last week against the Storm after an extra time victory against the Tigers the week before.
Penrith started well against the Tigers last week, but faded late. They “should” have too much for Souths this week. I was let down by them last week, but I do expect them to be up for this one.
Prediction: Panthers win.
Manly Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors
Despite losing 32-10 against the Dragons on Monday night, Manly played pretty well. If a couple of decisions had gone their way, it could have been a much tighter contest.
The Warriors keep ticking over victories and find themselves well within finals contention. Their away form is what still has question marks, and this week will provide good insight into how they’re going to perform in the finals away from home.
Sea Eagles vs Warriors Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Sea Eagles: $1.48
Warriors: $2.65
Margin Betting Odds
Sea Eagles 1-12: $3.10
Sea Eagles 13+: $2.65
Warriors 1-12: $4.25
Warriors 13+: $6.15
Predictions and Tips
If the Sea Eagles lose this game, they risk being outside the top 8. Their form is good enough to win this match at home, and I think they’ll do exactly that. The Warriors are still an unknown quantity, but I don’t think they have the quality across the park to win at Brookvale Oval this weekend.
Prediction: Sea Eagles win.
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks
The Storm are still managing to grind out victories, without anything to play for. Cameron Smith has already confirmed this week that the Storm players are struggling to find motivation each week.
The Sharks played a high quality match against the Roosters last week and pulled out the upset of the round. They are heavy underdogs in this match, but their form in recent weeks suggests it could be closer than the online bookmakers are predicting.
Storm vs Sharks Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Margin Betting Odds
Storm 1-12: $3.00
Storm 13+: $2.15
Sharks 1-12: $5.25
Sharks 13+: $10.00
Predictions and Tips
Could this be another upset-of-the-round victory for the Sharks? It quite possibly could be, but the Storm have had a habit of winning close matches at home this season. My tip is that for continue and another Storm 1-12 victory is on the cards.
Prediction: Storm win.
North Queensland Cowboys vs Cantebury Bulldogs
I’ve been giving the Cowboys a fair bit of praise in recent weeks, despite their losing form. They continue to get themselves into winning positions and doing nothing about it.
This week they take on another poor team in the Bulldogs. Does the fact that the Bulldogs are almost as bad as them mean they’ll finally come up with a win at home?
Cowboys vs Bulldogs Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Cowboys: $2.30
Bulldogs: $1.62
Margin Betting Odds
Cowboys 1-12: $4.00
Cowboys 13+: $4.85
Bulldogs 1-12: $3.10
Bulldogs 13+: $3.15
Predictions and Tips
The Bulldogs are way too short in this match. Perhaps I’ve been giving the Cowboys too much credit in recent weeks, but I can’t see too much difference between these two teams. The Bulldogs are away, which gives me even more doubt. I’m going with a Bulldogs win, but definitely won’t be betting on this match at those odds.
Prediction: Bulldogs win.
Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons have not won at Canberra Stadium since 1999. The Dragons hate playing the Raiders, who are their bogey team. The Raiders have already beaten the Dragons this season, albeit during State Of Origin.
Up until the return of Weyman a couple of weeks ago, the Dragons forward pack looked soft and impotent. This week will be a stern test for them as they take on the brute force of the Canberra forwards.
Raiders vs Dragons Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Margin Betting Odds
Raiders 1-12: $4.00
Raiders 13+: $4.85
Dragons 1-12: $3.10
Dragons 13+: $3.15
Predictions and Tips
The Dragons are gaining momentum after coming out of their mid-season slump. They’ve beaten what I believe to be their two biggest challengers in the Roosters and Sea Eagles in the past two weeks. Now they take on their bogey team in another big match for them.
I don’t think the Dragons will lose another game this year, and this week they’ll continue on their way to the 2010 NRL Premiership.
Prediction: Dragons win.
Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers
This match is tricky to predict. The Eels upset the Broncos last week, but can’t seem to perform on a consistent basis. They are at home against a team that they have a great record against, and the bookmakers believe they’re good things.
The Tigers are up against their bogey team, but keep finding ways to win. Every match they play they look like they’re going to lose, which makes bookmakers and punters uncertain about their prospects. The Tigers could win or lose this match by 20, what will it be?
Eels vs Tigers Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Margin Betting Odds
Eels 1-12: $3.30
Eels 13+: $3.30
Tigers 1-12: $3.75
Tigers 13+: $4.50
Predictions and Tips
The Eels beat a Broncos team last week without Lockyer. Does that make them deserved favourites at home to a team equal 2nd on the ladder? The Eels have shown all year they can’t be trusted to perform each week.
That being said, the Tigers haven’t been playing well in the past weeks. They are away to their bogey team which is enough for me to tip the Eels.
Prediction: Eels win.
Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans
The Roosters well belted (literally) against the Dragons two weeks ago and I think that carried over last week against the Sharks. It was a very physical match against the Dragons, which could have deflated them some.
The Titans are flying high at the moment sitting in second place. They seem to be doing everything right, just a few weeks after everyone had written them off to be contending during the finals.
Roosters vs Titans Betting
Head to Head Betting Odds
Margin Betting Odds
Roosters 1-12: $3.10
Roosters 13+: $3.10
Titans 1-12: $4.05
Titans 13+: $5.15
Predictions and Tips
This will be an entertaining match to watch. Both of these teams believe they are in with a good chance to win this season and have top four prospects. If the Roosters lose, that’ll be three consecutive defeats. If the Titans lose, it’ll show once again they’re incapable of winning important matches against the big teams.
I think the Roosters are a far superior side to the Titans. They are playing at home and should get the job done this week.
Prediction: Roosters win.
NRL Round 24 Best Bets
My best bet of the round is Manly to beat the Warriors @ $1.48. If you take the -7.5 you can get on @ $2.00.
The best value bets of the round come in the form of upsets. The two matches that I think are vulnerable to upsets are the Cowboys @ $2.30 and the Tigers @ $2.15.
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2 comments
Deeross Thursday 19th August 2010 at 04:48 pm
Well last week was an improvement of sorts, which isn’t hard to do considering the poor showing the week before. This week we have 2 different mate, this is a round that is tippable, I reckon one of us should get it.
Knights Vs Broncos – The Knights played decent last week but just got done by the Warriors, it was never going to be easy to travel over there and beat them on their own turf. The Broncos on the opposite hand were on their home turf and got served by the hungry Eels players. Earlier this year these two teams had a clash, the Knights were in all sort at the time and the Broncos were looking good, yet some how, in what I think was one of the worst games all year, the Knights came out on top. The Knights have won their last two clashes with the Broncos, and having on only 11 of their 34 clashes they have some catching up to do. Without Lockyer the Broncos are no good. I’m tipping the Knights.
Panthers Vs Rabbitohs – The Panthers once again had a disappointing game last week against the Tigers, there was a couple of silly errors in the middle of the park but they did look dangerous out wide. They were without Lewis for a lot of the game which affected their chances of winning. The Rabbitohs came back from 18-4 to lose 18-16 against the Storm last week in wet conditions. If Souths had their full playing roster i’d be getting on them, and they do play very well when short staffed, however they have a very poor record against the Panthers, and they have also lost their last 6 away games in a row, shooting for 7 straight after this match. I’m tipping Panthers 1-12.
Sea Eagles Vs Warriors – The Eagles are playing a bit like the Roosters at the start of the year as their record is becoming a bit WLWLWLWL…. they lost last week, so they are due for a win this week. The Warriors have started to find a bit of form once again, but their away form always has to be taken into consideration. Its time for Manly to prove they are title contenders, and with a game at Brookvale against the Warriors I couldn’t think of a better time for a 13+ victory for the Eagles.
Storm Vs Sharks – The Sharks were the major upset of the week last week against the Roosters, they did play well, in particular they defended well. It is once in every blue moon that the Sharks win back to back, and unfortunately there are no more blue moons this year. The Storm had a very comfortable lead early in the game last week against Souths, and then took their foot off the throttle. Storm to win this one.
Cowboys Vs Bulldogs – I have never tipped for teh Cowboys when Thurston was out and i’m not going to start now. Bulldogs will win this one, even after their poor performance last week.
Raiders Vs Dragons – This is a very hard one to tip… that might sound ridiculous to some, but the Dragons have only won 1 game of their last 11 vs the Raiders, and I don’t think they have beaten them at Canberra stadium since the 90′s. I had to look at the line ups to decide who was going to win this one, I know the Dragons defence has been phenomenal over the last 5 or 6 weeks, I think they have averaged about 11 points per game over this period, however with Josh Dugan at full backl for the Raiders, an absolute game breaker of a player, I think the Raiders will win this one. This is my upset of the week.
Eels Vs Tigers – This time last year both teams had won about 5 in a row, and both teams needed to win this one to make the finals. As we all know last year the Eels pipped the Tigers in one of the most exciting games of the year, if Taniela Tuuakie didn’t get injured in this match I think the Tigers would have stopped the Eels dream run into the finals. This year is completely different, with the Tigers still defying the odds and winning matches they are not supposed to. Once again I had to look at the line ups to decide who would win this one, without Mortimer the Eels look more dangerous as he has been having a terrible 2nd year in the top grade. The Tigers…. I just can’t tip them… and I haven’t had much luck tipping the Eels this year but I’m going for them again. Eels 1-12.
Roosters Vs Titans – Last time these two met it was on a monday night up at skilled park. The Roosters were about the biggest underdogs of the weekend, however they played outstanding and had a very comfortable victory without play maker Mitchell Pearce. This time around they are the favourites, and rightfully so. The Roosters have one of the best monday night footy records out of any club in the competition, and this will be proven this weekend. The Roosters also have had 2 losses in a row for the 2nd time this year, last time they lost 2 in a row they went on to win 5 in a row, this could be the start of their late season charge into the finals. The Titans remind me a lot of the Tigers, they seem to win games when they look like losing, and they lose games when they look like they should be winning. I’m going the Roosters by 13+.
Nick Haslem Thursday 19th August 2010 at 07:07 pm
Deeross,
Good to see you’re more confident than usual this week. The Broncos are a team that will be much better next year from the experience of this year. I don’t think they cut the mustard, and are overrated.
How people can continually talk up their chances to win the prermiership in the same breath as the Dragons and Roosters is beyond me. That being said, the Knights are still an unknown quantity. I backed them last week as heavy dogs but it didn’t come through. This week they’ll be at home… but surely the Broncos will be to keep their season alive against them? The Broncos will sorely miss Lockyer though.
As for the Raiders game, they are too inconsistent for me. They do have a massive pack, and the Dragons seem to have make-shift props at times… but they should still get the job done. The Dragons have way too much class to lose to a team that really only has Campese and Dugan.
Everyone has written off the Tigers, just like I did last week. The fact remains though, they are coming up with victories. In the past they have been criticised for losing all their close matches. Now they are winning, they are getting criticised for not playing attractive football. I would not be surprised if we see the Eels return to their dismal ways of the 2010 season.
You are right about the Cowboys playing terrible all year. They are deserved wooden spooners. That being said, they should have won a lot more games then they have. They had every chance to beat the Titans last week on the Gold Coast… who are currently 2nd on the ladder. They are coming up against a team that’s performing just as bad as them… so maybe at home this week they’ll find the victory they’ve been looking for. Their club is in disarray at the moment with board meetings being called and the like, so plenty of off field drama for them.
With all the comments I’ve just made, I’m still confident in my decisions. I think this week will be the best round in recent weeks (not too hard to be better).
What’s your best multi bet for the week Deeross?