Round 24 NRL Tips – Best Bets

By John Frangulis - August 21, 2009  

Written by our newest addition to the team, John Frangulis

Well, what a way to start the weekend. The weather is hotting up (unless you’re living in Melbourne) and so is the footy action. Here is the late mail for the weekend’s games.

Tigers v Eels – SFS 7:30pm

Team news: Feleti “Dominic” Mateo will start off the bench for the Eels in his first game back from a bicep injury sustained while training at “Mitsos Gym” in Marrickville earlier this year. “Ron” Jeremy Latimore will drop off the extended bench and concentrate on shooting a few scenes for his upcoming flick “The Slippery Eel”.

The Tigers have a few injury concerns most notably Robbie “Ali Baba” Farah and Keith “Floyd” Galloway. Although Dene “Bulldog” Halatau and Daine “Truck” Laurie have trained with the squad, both are expected to play after receiving some “hypoxic” treatment.

Game news: Both teams are evenly matched and it should come down to the team that makes less mistakes. They’ve been scoring heavily in recent weeks but I expect a tighter one tonight. Obviously Hayne is on another planet at the moment and the Tigers will need to be on the ball. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see the match level at the end of normal time.

Tip: Tigers by 1

Odds: Tigers – $2.50, Eels – $1.50

Footy TAB: Tigers +3.5

Best bets: Safety – Tigers +12.5 pts, Value bet – Either team under 6.5

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Dragons v Broncos – WIN 7:30pm

Team news: Neville “Bartos” Costigan has sustained a hip injury after running into Mark Brandon “Chopper” Read on Wednesday night and is out of tonight’s clash. Jeremy “Will” Smith, lucky to escape suspension after trying to imitate a torpedo in last week’s game will come into the side at lock. Jason “Florence” Nightingale and Jon “Danny” Green will drop off the bench while Chase Stanley “Knife” comes onto the interchange. The Dragons get back Beau “Duke” Scott from suspension and Matt “Wayne” Cooper with his commitments at the Rosemount Fashion Festival coming to an end today.

For the Broncos, Alex “Perry” Glenn is out with an ankle injury sustained on the catwalk. After listening to “careless whispers” going around the club and thinking that “I’m never gonna play again”, Steve “George” Michaels is in line for a recall to replace the injured Glenn. Part-time fashion designer Guy “Laroche” Williams has also been mentioned together with Bronco behemoth Dave “Bunny” Taylor. No final word as yet.

Game news: Plenty of talk this week on the Dragons after their shock loss to the Raiders in chilly Canberra last Saturday night. North of the border, Brisbane supporters have jumped back in the saddle after seeing their Broncos string 2 wins in a row together. For mine, it’s a false dawn for the Broncos with the Dragons set to end their top 8 hopes tonight.

Tip: Dragons by 22

Odds: Dragons – $1.25, Broncos – $3.75

Footy TAB: Broncos +10.5

Best bets: Safety – Dragons over 6.5 pts, Value bet – Dragons 13+

Knights v Cowboys – Energy Australia 5:30pm

Team news: The Knights have a host of players under a cloud. Keith “Urban” Lulia, Cooper “Sooner” Vuna, Danny “Candle” Wicks and Steve “Homer” Simpson are struggling with injuries. Wicks is rated the least likely to play with Cory “Haim” Paterson on standby.

For the Cowboys, Willie “Paira” Tonga is still suffering from the effects of trying to headbutt Jamal Idris last week but is expected to play. Ben Harris “Park” is the most likely to drop off the bench.

Game news: The Cowboys are in dire straits. A loss will most likely see their top 8 hopes evaporate. The Knights belted the Storm last week but the jury remains undecided on their status as contenders. Given the stakes and desperation, I’m expecting the Cowboys to come out firing and win in a close one.

Tip: Cowboys by 2

Odds: Knights – $1.55, Cowboys – $2.40

Footy TAB: Cowboys +4.5

Best bets: Safety – Cowboys +12.5 pts, Value bet – Cowboys 1-12

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Panthers v Rabbitohs – CUA 7:30pm

Team news: “Lucky” Luke Lewis is expected play after being injured in last week’s annihilation by the Broncos. Brad Tighe “Me Up” has a knee complaint but is also expected to play. If they both play, then Tim “Stan” Grant and the retiring Adam “Cotton yes” Woolnough will drop off the bench.

The Rabbits have a host of players out with injury but no late changes are foreseen.

Game news: The Panthers capitulated last week, giving up a 6 point half-time lead and conceding a point a minute in the second half to get flogged convincingly. The Rabbitohs have been decimated by injury but the result here is still a little murky. Mathematically, the Rabbitohs can still make but a loss will end their hopes completely. The Panthers should be more desperate but they are one of the worst teams to tip in games that they should win. Defence won’t be a priority, expect plenty of points.

Tip: Panthers by 8

Odds: Panthers – $1.30, Rabbitohs – $3.40

Footy TAB: Rabbitohs +9.5

Best bets: Safety – Over 44.5 pts, Value bet – Jennings more tries than his opposite

Warriors v Raiders – Mt Smart 12:00pm

Team news: Warriors still undecided on who will drop off the bench with either Russell “Kerry” Packer or Lewis “James” Brown to go.

The Raiders have lost Tom Learoyd-“Loggins”-Lahrs to a hamstring injury sustained while running roughshod over the Dragons pack last week. David “Penny” Shillington has been pencilled in to replace Lahrs. “Billy” Joel Monaghan is also under a cloud, no news on a replacement if he is ruled out.

Game news: Ivan “I can see” Cleary is under pressure if reports in the media are to be believed. The Warriors will want to finish strong but have nothing to play for. The Raiders will be looking at consolidating after their win over the Dragons last week. I expect a dour affair to start, with the Raiders pack to start offloading at the back end as the defence tires.

Tip: Raiders by 10

Odds: Warriors – $1.90, Raiders – $1.90

Footy TAB: Raiders +2.5

Best bets: Safety – Raiders, Value bet – Raiders 1-12

Titans v Sharks – Skilled 2:00pm

Team news: “Prince” William Zillman is out suspended for 4 weeks for giving Souths winger Jamie “Bart” Simpson a hickey on his arm last week. Potential replacement Preston Campbell “Soup” is also struggling with injuries and may miss. If the above eventuates, Brenton Bowen “Arrow” will start at fullback with Mat “Rat” Rogers to move to five-eighth and “Messy” Esi Tonga to play in the centres.

The Sharks are expected to be as named with no changes forecast.

Game news: Sharks looking to avoid the spoon but it won’t be enough to prevent the Titans from consolidating 3rd spot. This could get messy.

Tip: Titans by 20

Odds: Titans – $1.10, Sharks $6.50

Footy TAB: Sharks +17.5

Best bets: Safety – Titans over 6.5, Value bet – Titans 19+

Storm v Sea Eagles – Olympic Park 3:00pm

Team news: No late changes expected for the Storm with Greg “Palmer” Inglis sitting out his second match after assault charges.

For Manly, there has been talk the Brett “Ray Warren loves me” Stewart may play but according to 2KY this morning, he won’t play this weekend and will make his return at Brookvale next week. Shane “Warney” Rodney will drop off the bench.

Game news: Grand Final rematch with both teams playing inconsistent football. The Storm will be looking at wrapping up 4th spot and home final while the Eagles will be out to steal the Storm’s thunder and spot in the top 4. Expect a grinding match with points at a premium with the home ground advantage tipping the scales Melbourne’s way.

Tip: Storm by 2

Odds: Storm – $1.90, Sea Eagles – $1.90

Footy TAB: Sea Eagles +2.5

Best bets: Safety – Storm +12.5, Value bet – either team under 6.5

Bulldogs v Roosters – ANZ 7:00pm

Team news: Luke Patten “my groin” is expected to return from an ankle injury. Prop Jarrad “Love Bite” Hickey is also confident of starting after he was concussed in last week’s game when he clashed heads with Carl “Spider” Webb. Michael “Jordan” Hodgson has a calf injury and will have a fitness test today.

The Roosters have no injury worries coming into the game, with resident Scatologist, Dr Nate “Pooper” Myles, returning from suspension.

Game news: Roosters are desperate to avoid the wooden spoon and the Bulldogs would love nothing more than to condemn their arch-rivals to it after they ended up with it last year. The Dogs showed their class last week and I expect them to get the job done well on Monday night, despite their injury concerns up front.

Tip: Bulldogs by 24

Odds: Bulldogs – $1.11, Roosters $6.00

Footy TAB: Roosters +17.5

Best bets: Safety – Bulldogs over 6.5 pts, Value bet – Bulldogs 19+

>Sports Alive have all the latest odds for NRL round 24.